Presidential Debate Poll

Following Friday’s presidential debate, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute released their Swing State polls on October 1, suggesting that Sen. Barack Obama favors over 50 percent in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The poll consists of a study conducted prior to the presidential debate, in comparison to a study conducted subsequently to the debate.

The poll concluded that following the debate, Obama‘s favorability increased by two percent in Florida, one percent in Ohio and five percent in Pennsylvania, whereas Sen. John McCain’s remained the same in both Florida and Ohio and dropped down to four percent in Pennsylvania.

“It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign,” Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute said in a press release on October 1. “In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania.”

The importance these three states play to the overall poll is due to the fact that no presidential candidate has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these three large swing states.

Even prior to Friday’s debate, a polling study conducted by Quinnipiac University from September 11 showed that Florida’s favorability towards Obama had increased from 43 to 49 percent whereas McCain’s dropped from 50 to 43 percent.

“Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century,” Brown said.
While the polls suggested that more than 84 percent of voters in each state did not change their mind following the debate, 13 to 17 percent of voters in each of the three states say that Obama did a better job and 15 to 27 percent of independent voters believed Obama to have won the debate.

“Sen. Obama clearly won the debate, voters say. Their opinion of Gov. Sarah Palin has gone south and the Wall Street meltdown has been a dagger to McCain’s political heart,” Brown said. “Roughly a third of voters, and almost as large a share of the key independent vote, say McCain did more harm than good in trying to resolve the financial crisis, and the share of voters who see the economy as the top issue has risen from roughly half to six in ten.”